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How large is the current and future mobile robotics market, and what is the best way to seize the opportunity? Quantitative research studies provide only a partial answer. Predictors of market growth come from many sources, some quantifiable, while other are more subjective, but real and compelling nonetheless. Just open your eyes and look around.
By Dan Kara
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Dan Kara
Conference Chair
President
Robotics Trends
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Let me begin by stating unequivocally that I am no high tech Pollyanna. In fact I am the categorical opposite, a clear eyed high tech veteran, and as such I reflexively cast a cynical eye whenever I read of pundits proclaiming the “next, next big thing”. I have been in high tech far too long to be fooled again. Like some of you, I was there to witness the rise and fall of Artificial Intelligence (big AI) and was still around when the Internet-fueled “New Economy” went supernova. But these are stories for another time.
Occasionally, though, even a jaded grey beard can be given pause by the appearance of a new technology market. A far rarer event, however, is to find a market change so profound that it will radically alter the way we live our lives day-to-day. The emerging personal and service robotics market, or mobile robotics if you prefer, is one such market In this column, I will define mobile robotics and lay out evidence why I believe that the market for intelligent, mobile robots that entertain, educate, assist and protect us, is the real deal, and why it presents immense opportunities for individuals and corporate entities alike.
Intelligent, Autonomous, Mobile Robots What markets are we speaking of exactly? I have always found that the best place to begin anything is at the beginning. For starters, the robotics market as a whole is comprised of three distinct, yet substantial, subgroups. These are Industrial Robotics, Service Robotics, and Personal Robotics.
The older industrial robotics segment, which was developed over the second half of the last century, consists of immobile, single task robots that have little interaction with humans or the world around them. They are termed industrial robots because they are exclusively employed in manufacturing and factory floor automation. You know the type. They are the robots, actually the articulated robotic arms, responsible for spot welding our cars, painting our refrigerators and checking for irregularities in assembled products.
Such industrial robots differ radically from the robots and robotic technology that are the focus of this column and the Robotics Trends portal – mobile, interactive robotic devices with a high degree of intelligence built into them, which freely interact with humans, other robots and their surroundings. Such robots and robotic technology are termed personal and service robots, although they are often combined into a larger “mobile robotics” category.
Personal Robotics Robotics Trends defines Personal Robots as robots or robotic technology purchased by individual buyers (consumers) which educate, entertain or assist in the home. The personal robotics market serves the consumer market in many diverse segments and is typified by products such as home automation/domestic service robots (robotic vacuum cleaners and home security robots, for example), hobbyist/education robots and entertainment robots (Lego’s Mindstorms and Sony’s Aibo robot dog serve as examples, respectively). Intelligent mobile toys such as Hasbro’s Fur Real Friends, along with those robots that assist the disabled and elderly in the home, also fall into the personal robotics category.
Service Robotics Service robots, semi or fully autonomous mobile robots that assist humans, service equipment and perform other autonomous functions, have applications in almost every industry – anywhere where work is repetitive, requires continuously high levels of concentration, is physically demanding or takes place in dangerous environments. Examples of areas where service robots are working, or in development, includes, but is not limited to, industrial cleaning, equipment maintenance, and data acquisition. The da Vinci robotic surgery system, is a service robot, along with a whole host of other medical/healthcare robots such as rehabilitation robots, and prosthetic and orthotic devices. The robotic rovers Spirit and Opportunity currently hurtling towards Mars are exploration and discovery service robots, as are the Pyramid Rovers exploring inside the pyramid of Cheops. Inspection, security, construction, demolition, delivery, the list goes on and on, are all services now provided by service robots.
 Robots for defense and homeland security are probably the largest subclass of service robots. Unmanned Ground Vehicles (UGV), Unmanned Underwater Vehicles (UUV), and of course Unmanned Arial Vehicles (UAV), best exemplified by the Air Force’s Predator UAV, are common military service robotic types. Often linked to military robots are search and rescue, fire fighting, de-mining, surveillance and other types of public safety robots.
Some Quantitative Evidence
The personal and service robotics markets are immature markets. Nothing exemplifies this immaturity better than the lack of quantitative market sizing data and professional, critical analysis. The quantitative studies that do exist, however, indicate a market on the verge of dramatic growth. Recent research by the Japan Robotics Association (JPA), United Nations Economic Commission (UNEC) and the International Federation of Robotics (IFR) indicates that the nascent personal and service robotics market will exhibit exceptional near term growth and will surpass the size of the much older industrial robotic market at the end of 2005 (Figures 1-2). It is also important to note that the JRA, UNEC and IFR studies do not include military robots, perhaps the largest service robot market, in their market sizing analyses.
To derive data for the personal and service robotics market, one often must extrapolate from existing studies. For example, for a recent Japan Robotics Association (JPA) study, data for the service and personal robotics market can be derived by combining the public sector, medical, welfare and home markets. According to the JPA (Figure 1), the service and personal robotics marketplaces together will equal the size of the industrial robotics market (the combination of manufacturing and bio-industrial) by 2005, and will be twice the size of the industrial robotics market by 2010, and almost 4X its size by 2025.
On a similar note, the United Nations Economic Commission (UNEC) and International Federation of Robotics (IFR) estimate that the personal and service robotics market will roughly double between 2002 and 2005, reaching $5.2B in 2005 (Figure 2). The number of personal and service robots sold is expected to increase ten fold between 2002 and 2005 according to the UNEC and IFR. Sales for domestic robots (vacuum cleaning, lawn mowing, window cleaning and other types) is expected to reach over 800,000 units, while sales for toy and entertainment robots will exceed one million units.  Startling projections of drastic market growth based on scant research is nothing new to nascent technology markets. In fact it is the rule rather than the exception. But some assurance as to the validity of estimates can be had if the various studies are in basic agreement. For example, the Japan Robotics Association expects the personal and service robotics market to grow from $600M in 2002 to $5.4B in 2005, and expand even more quickly after that. These figures closely approximate those of the UNEC and IFR studies.
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| Enabling Technology |
Many of the technologies required to build functional personal and service robots already exist, and markets for these products are already in place. Some of the most salient enabling technologies include advances in microprocessor technology, wireless technology, image processing, speech recognition, motion sensor technology, and embedded systems development tools. |
| Academia |
Hundreds of universities worldwide have research programs in robotics and many are awarding degrees in robotics. These “roboticists” are increasingly being hired by Global 2000 organizations to link mobile robots (mobile computers) into existing IT systems. |
| Defense and Homeland Security |
Homeland security, cost savings, and an emphasis on causality reduction during combat has pushed robotic research onto the fast track for government spending. For example, Congress passed a law two years ago making it an Army goal that "by 2015, one-third of the operational ground combat vehicles are unmanned." The US Navy and Marines have similar initiatives underway. |
| Support by Leading Electronics and Automotive Vendors |
The world’s largest consumer electronics and automotive companies including Honda, Sony, Fujitsu, Sanyo, Hitachi, NEC, Mitsubishi, Epson and others are developing entertainment and personal robotics for the home market. |
| Support by Major Mil\Aero Vendors |
Military and aerospace heavyweights Boeing, Raytheon, Bell Helicopter, General Dynamics, Harris Corporation, Honeywell, Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman, TRW, Curtis-Wright Flight Systems, MITRE, Rockwell, and Yamaha all have targeted the rapidly expanding Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) market. Boeing, Lockheed Martin and other large companies are joined by over one hundred dedicated unmanned autonomous vehicle (UAV) vendors to serve both the governmental and commercial markets. |
| International, National and Regional Robotic User Groups and Professional Associations |
Every major industrial country has national organizations dedicated to robotics. International organizations also abound. There are hundreds of independent robotic user groups and associations worldwide, most of which reside in the US. Every major US city has a robotic club or association. |
| Films |
From “Metropolis” (1927) and The Day the Earth Stood Still” (1951) to Stephen Spielberg’s “AI” (2001) and 2003’s “Terminator 3: Rise of the Machines”, the movie going public has been fascinated with everything robotic. This trend continues in 2004 with the July 4th release of “I Robot” starring Will Smith and 2005’s “Robots” from the same team that brought us “Ice Age”. |
| Television |
In the US alone, there are currently three television programs dedicated completely to robots and robotics. Moreover, science and technology related cable channels such as TechTV, the Discovery Channel and the National Geographic Channel constantly run programs that focus on robots, mechatronics and robotics. |
| Toys and Entertainment |
While most of the toy market has suffered in the recent economic downturn, Hasbro, Sega, Bandi, Tomy, Tiger Electronics and other toymakers have witnessed strong growth in the sales of robotic toys. |
| Home Automation |
Honda, Husqvarna, Toro and others have released robotic lawn mowers in an effort to capture part of the $22 billion U.S. lawn and garden market. On a similar note, traditional vacuum makers Electrolux, Eureka, Panasonic and been joined by newcomers Dyson, Cye, iRobot and others to target the home housekeeping market with robotic vacuum cleaners. |
| Elder Assistance |
Many companies that produce medical/ rehabilitative products are partnering with robotics companies to develop elder assistance robots designed to serve a growing aging population and the home retirement segment. Similarly, assisted walking and wheelchair robots assist the disabled and the elderly in their everyday lives. |
| Medical/Surgical |
Hundreds of robotic surgical systems are currently in use throughout the US with an equal number employed worldwide. These systems are joined by an increasing number of an autonomous hospital delivery robots for X-ray films, samples and medicines. |
Qualitative Evidence Overwhelming According to what little quantitative market sizing studies are available, the personal and service robotics markets are expected to grow dramatically over the course of the next few years. But I am sure many of you, especially those with a long history in high tech, are skeptical. In the high tech and computer markets, statistics are often abused and misused to create the perception of a new growth market (recall Disraeli’s three types of lies: lies, damn lies, and statistics). It is wise to be skeptical, but wiser still to realize that predictors of market growth come from many sources, some quantifiable, while other are more subjective, but real and compelling nonetheless.
The quantitative studies cited above are complemented by a number of other trends (the growing use of robots in the military, for example) and events (i.e. the mission to Mars carrying the Spirit and Opportunity robotic rovers) acting across popular entertainment, academia, user groups and associations, government and so on, whose only area of commonality is a focus on robotics. These trends indicate a strong and growing interest in the subject of robots and robotics. Consider the following:
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The list above could continue, but we all get the picture. There is a great deal of impetus behind the mobile robotics market at this time. While robots have been part of our collective conscious since the dawn of the last century, useful robots, until this time, have been limited to industrial robots. Clearly, something has changed… and something is brewing.
Mobile Robotics Arrive For those of you not particularly interested in the social ramifications of the trends described above, consider this… much of the technology used to actuate the disparate robot types is the same. Core robotics research and advances in robotic technology can be applied across a variety of robotic form factors and robotic functionality. Moreover, these advances feed on and off of each other. With each new round of innovation, a type of technological cross pollination occurs that improves existing robotic platforms and opens up other avenues where intelligent mobile robots can be employed, effectively creating new markets. Basically, what’s good for a robotic unmanned ground vehicle is also good for your neighbor’s robotic lawn mower. Put another way, “Can the toy market exploit years of entertainment animatronics research?” Absolutely.
It is true that some of the trends listed above have little in common with each other in purely technological terms. Motion pictures featuring robots and the unmanned aerial vehicles that are part of the military’s Future Combat System (FCS) program provide one example. But it is equally true that each of these trends engage the public’s interest in mobile robotics at some level. They also reinforce the notion that robots are no longer limited to arc welding and the hobbyist’s workbench. The public is increasingly becoming aware that era mobile robotics has “arrived”.
Opportunities Abound At this time, we have multiple technological, cultural, political and market forces collapsing into the quantum singularity that is mobile robotics, a phenomenon that will have a major impact on the way we live our lives. For the more entrepreneurial among us, and here I am speaking of both forward thinking individuals and forward looking corporations, the emergence of a market for intelligent, mobile robots for use in our homes, workplaces and public spaces, to say nothing of in the air, under the seas or on the battlefield, presents many opportunities.
Of course, the handmaiden of opportunity is risk, and in uncertain economic times risk mitigation shares an equal billing with opportunity exploitation (actually, risk reduction might be the headliner). The mot successful entrepreneurs are those that can strike a balance between risk and opportunity, and the first step in reaching that balance is to gauge the market opportunity correctly.
The pitfalls of prognostication in the high tech arena are well known, and I have seen nothing to convince me that the mobile robotics market will be any different. From my experience, the best approach for putting yourself or your company in the optimal competitive position to take advantage of emerging mobile robotics technology, as well as your best defense of misinterpreting current industry trends, is to incorporate high quality quantitative research data with a less empirical, but well reasoned, qualitative analysis. I would also recommend reading as much as you can about the market, paying particular attention to the views of industry watchers whose opinions you respect. As with life in general, a strong dose of common sense also goes a long way.
Dan Kara is President and Editorial Director of Robotics Trends. He can be reached at
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